Tuesday 31 January 2012

Taliban Talks - Smoke, Mirrors And More Smoke

Karzai might be able to play on tensions between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the two oil-rich neighbours. While Saudi Arabia has become more conservative and anti-Western under King Abdullah (since 2005), Qatar has established itself as a relatively liberal Arab regime and a trusted ally of and provider of military bases for the West in the Gulf region, just across from Iran. Riyadh might not be happy watching its much smaller neighbour claiming a prominent role in the progress of Taliban talks while its own initiative, in the fall of 2008, had faltered.
These were the famous Iftar meetings when the former Taliban, as part of a governmental delegation also including former Northern Alliance leaders, had their first high-profile international appearance. Pakistani politicians like Nawaz Sharif, Aftab Sherpao and Fazl-ur-Rahman (of the JUI-F party) also had been invited and rumours – never convincingly confirmed or denied – had it that representatives of the still active Taliban (the ubiquitous Tayyeb Agha and possibly Mawlawi Kabir, a former Taliban ‘acting prime minister’) also attended.  More.

2 comments:

  1. The Taliban specifically said it opened shop in Qatar to avoid being labeled as a Saudi puppet, meaning the group's leadership is equally likely to engage many regional powers. However the Taliban and U.S. are both insincere about reaching a political settlement, seeking an endgame on their terms. Taliban is clearly building its platform post-2014, and they may wait until after U.S. forces withdraw in large numbers before negotiating in-house.

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  2. Yes. All that is validated by the detail of the leaked NATO report today which you will have seen. An interesting contrast with the official NATO/ISAF report on 'progress' of two weeks ago.

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