"These regional chiefs, or warlords, were mostly brought back from exile. They were unpopular, having committed war crimes during the civil war. But instead of sidelining them, the US and UK re-empowered them with cash and weapons and made them the allies' sole reference points. They still are, to the bemusement of ordinary Afghans, many of whom, particularly in rural areas, would have preferred a more genuine engagement with the more legitimate local leadership. Unfortunately, the use of strongmen to fight al-Qaida and Taliban has led to chaos in rural areas and a further fragmentation of the tribal system that we should have worked with instead."
IMO Iraq is more likely of having a civil war sooner than later.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan will be worked out among Afghans and its immediate neighbors.
KSA and Qatar are more worried about Iraq/Iran than they are Afghanistan.