Considering their opposing interests, I doubt that Ansar Dine can make and hold a real agreement with African capitals or the MNLA. This is a smokescreen for the Islamist coalition after the UN approved a resolution for Mali, and such a deal has already broken down once before. Nothing has changed except, perhaps, the MNLA ceding authority to the Islamists, and that won't work for the UN.
Unfortunately I believe that this is bigger than a few making some kind of temporary peace. Libya is connected to the Mali problem. Outside forces thrive on chaos. Mali might be used as their entry ticket into the rest of Africa. France was/is itching to enter Mali. Kenya is blowing up again. Congo is at a tipping point. Nigeria can explode at a moments notice. Africa will be a choke point for 2013 - -
Yes. As all the theatres are. Hollande has focused on Mali because he thinks he sees a soft target. One which also gets him much needed points with the White House.
Considering their opposing interests, I doubt that Ansar Dine can make and hold a real agreement with African capitals or the MNLA. This is a smokescreen for the Islamist coalition after the UN approved a resolution for Mali, and such a deal has already broken down once before. Nothing has changed except, perhaps, the MNLA ceding authority to the Islamists, and that won't work for the UN.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately I believe that this is bigger than a few making some kind of temporary peace.
ReplyDeleteLibya is connected to the Mali problem.
Outside forces thrive on chaos.
Mali might be used as their entry ticket into the rest of Africa.
France was/is itching to enter Mali.
Kenya is blowing up again.
Congo is at a tipping point.
Nigeria can explode at a moments notice.
Africa will be a choke point for 2013 - -
No question that Mali is about more than Mali.
ReplyDeleteYes. As all the theatres are. Hollande has focused on Mali because he thinks he sees a soft target. One which also gets him much needed points with the White House.
Deletehttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/only-crisis-can-show-true-colors-of-french-president-hollande-a-873905.html
ReplyDelete