Some Modest Predictions For Post-NATO Afghanistan

Dominance of Afghanistan by Pushtun and Taliban (who are largely Pushtun) will be delayed if the Karzai-Obama SPA is fully implemented. Thirty-three years of war, including a decade against the U.S.S.R. and a decade against the U.S., has hardened the nationalism of the Pushtuns and the militancy of the Taliban.

It is unlikely that Pushtun and Taliban leaders, whether in Afghanistan or Pakistan, will permit a strong role for the Tajiks or the Uzbeks in Kabul. Rather the Tajiks and Uzbeks will assume positions more like the marginalized Sunni Arabs in Iraq or, like the Kurds, will try to achieve an independent state.

It also seems likely that Afghanistan, like Iraq, will follow the authoritarian route taken by the Shi'a-led, U.S.- sponsored regime in Iraq. Also, like Iraq, it is likely that Afghanistan, sustained by the billions of dollars the U.S. has already spent on building the Afghan army, and the $4 billion a year recommended in the SPA will further facilitate the establishment of an authoritarian regime in Afghanistan.