The Albatross Around Afghanistan's Neck
The current political experiment in Afghanistan, embodied in a constitution which is largely a product of meddling foreigners trying to save themselves from Afghanistan by making it less Afghan, is an abysmal failure. Nonetheless, US officials have been at pains to distance themselves from the latest suggestion that the Afghan constitution should be revised, whatever views Afghans themselves may have on the subject, lest the Afghan president's pique interfere in their efforts to establish a Taliban office in Qatar and to begin political talks. The great irony in all of this is that, without a completely redrawn Afghan constitution, there will be no means of reaching a political accommodation with the Taliban even marginally acceptable to most Afghans - or to US officials themselves, for that matter. More.
A potential political resolution is absurdly complex. Grenier is correct in bringing Karzai and non-Pashtuns into the process, but their addition creates new obstacles. I think the Taliban remains open to a power-sharing agreement developed under national terms, not the U.S. and regional players (necessary as they are), but it's getting harder to see a deal by 2015. Rather than Vietnam 1973-75, U.S. withdrawals are likely to leave a larger, less organized version of Iraq's politico-military vacuum.
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