US Politics - The Afghan Dimension

Last week, experts gathered in Moscow to discuss the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan. The conference was organized by the Center for Support and Development of Public Initiative “Creative Diplomacy,” an independent public organization, and the Foundation of Historical Outlook, the Russian conservative think tank. Their topic was international relations and conflicts, especially Afghanistan. Some speakers noted a few specific features of the current stage of the conflict. First, NATO’s mission can be described as a complete failure now. Second, a rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces could precipitate an international catastrophe. And third, Pakistan is now the key factor in resolving the Afghan problem. Prominent Russian Oriental expert Georgy Mirsky said the war in Afghanistan would not be successful unless there was a victory in Pakistan. Some, including us at this site, believe Obama’s entourage shares this view. His representatives have tried to convince their Republican opponents at private meetings (ostensibly devoted to raising the federal debt ceiling but in fact focusing on other issues, including Afghanistan) that they should concentrate on Pakistan and that the solution does not depend on U.S. military presence (full-scale or otherwise) in Afghanistan. However, there are indications that the Republican opposition is not that worried about Afghanistan. They are more interested in Obama’s failure to make good on his pre-election vows such as the pullout from Afghanistan losing him votes. Therefore, they would prefer to leave things as they are in Afghanistan for at least the next 18 months, or better yet, to add some fuel to the conflict. This kind of approach has generated some truly incredible projects, such as the Blackwill Plan which is a sort of political elephant trap for Obama. By confronting Obama, the Republicans have relied on a strategy that maximizes their potential political gain, aiming to squeeze as much as they can from him in exchange for agreeing to increase the federal debt ceiling. It is hard to predict what deal the sides have actually made at this stage. It is clear that it is temporary and more fighting is still ahead. However, if the current political trends persist (harsh political campaigning that ignores international realities), this could lead to familiar dire consequences not just in the United States, but worldwide. You would not want to be a poor villager in on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, or Helmland or Libya just now, to say nothing of Iraq.