- He will pay tribute to 'our brave men and women in the field' 'sacrifices' 'service' etc.etc. as prev.
- He will talk about '30,000' leaving although he will mean 20,000 of whom 10,000 (or perhaps all) will go back again later
- The phasing will be timed to ensure the maximum electoral advantage to himself
- He will blusteringly play down talks with the Taliban while not ruling them out. This makes him sound tough.
- The only people who will feel satisfied or vindicated will be the Taliban.
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