Thursday 23 June 2011

Obama's Afghan Sunset Speech

Looks like most of our predictions yesterday came true. A few thoughts on reading the full transcript:


- US Election pending (public opinion becoming more important than generals' opinions)
- No proper acknowledgement of the Arab Spring. I wonder why!
- Big acknowledgement of America's inability to afford nation-building. A dollar short and a day late, to coin an American saying. But true, nonetheless.
- The Libya reference, to facilitating allies to take the initiative, is unfortunate. Libya is unravelling by the day. The UK for one cannot sustain any (not even the current inept one) campaign in Libya. France will blunder on so long as Sarkozy thinks it takes the focus off  his abject domestic failures and possibly enhances his slim chance of re-election. He is wrong about that.
A lot of debris is lying around, thanks to the destruction the US has caused. Not just in Afghanistan but in Pakistan (not mentioned in the speech) and through the Central Asian steppes and the ancient Indus Valley. Obama has sent shivers of fear through the region. Central Asians will worry how the  return of the Taliban will play out among the forces of Islamism in their countries, already facing up to the Arab Spring. 
- The Taliban will take the message to read: ' Unless you surrender we are going to quit'. They are rubbing their hands.

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