Home run? The pressure mounts on the president from war-weary voters
Jun 9th 2011 | from the print edition
WITHIN a few weeks Barack Obama must make a decision that could determine the outcome of the decade-long war in Afghanistan, the one that in his election campaign he described as the “right war” but of which most Americans are now weary. Having authorised sending an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan in late 2009, after prolonged agonising, Mr Obama always intended that a limited drawdown would begin after this year’s fighting season, with more coming home in good time for his bid to be re-elected in 2012. Left unsaid was the pace at which America would begin to reduce its force of 100,000 troops. It would, apparently, all depend on conditions on the ground.
That now looks open to question. Those close to the president, such as Joe Biden, the vice-president, and Tom Donilon, the national security adviser—both of whom opposed the 2009 “surge”—have taken up their cudgels again. According to reports, they are not only seeking a much bigger cut in troop numbers this year—up to 8,000—than the armed forces hoped to get away with; Mr Obama’s men also want a firm schedule for reversing the rest of the surge, preferably well before election day.
Their case is strengthened by the growing discontent over the war. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll suggests that, after the killing of Osama bin Laden, public backing for the war had risen to 43%. But that is probably just a temporary bounce. The trend since the end of 2009 has been steadily downward, falling last month to 31%. Inevitably, some Americans see bin Laden’s death as a good excuse to head for the exit—three out of four want a “substantial reduction” in troops this summer. On May 26th an amendment in the House to speed up the withdrawal and start talks with the Taliban was defeated by only 215 to 204, with 178 Democrats defying the president’s policy. Even some Republicans are turning against the war, albeit mainly because it costs some $2 billion a week.
The Pentagon is fighting a spirited rearguard action to limit the damage. General David Petraeus, the commander in Afghanistan, and Robert Gates, the defence secretary, who was in Afghanistan this week, insist that the campaign has turned a corner thanks to the surge. They say that the Taliban are now on the back foot and that a “good enough” outcome is within sight. But they also warn that the progress is not yet irreversible and could be jeopardised by too precipitate a drawdown. In particular, they want the time to complete the recruitment and training of Afghan security forces, which is the key to holding the country together after 2014 when NATO combat troops are due to leave.
Although the surge has fully justified itself, their voices may carry less weight than they did. The respected Mr Gates is retiring at the end of the month and General Petraeus has been drafted by Mr Obama to take on the running of the CIA later this year after its current director, Leon Panetta, succeeds Mr Gates at the Pentagon. Another advocate for the surge, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, is also leaving office soon.
Mr Obama will carefully weigh the arguments and sift all options. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution thinks the president’s caution means that he will not want to risk undermining what the surge has achieved. He says: “The best predictor of what the president will do is what he has done in the past.”
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