'However, he is still thinking hard about foreign policy – and in particular about Afghanistan. In a recent speech, he gave one of the most considered and explicit statements I have yet seen of what needs to be done to achieve a political settlement in Afghanistan. Miliband’s starting point is that the military effort is going badly and that the “deadline” of 2014 for withdrawal is unrealistic, without a huge effort to achieve a political settlement. He thinks that ultimately Afghanistan must be run on much federalised, decentralised lines.
And he is quite clear on the central issue of talking to the Taliban – we have to do it. That said, Miliband is not in favour of unconditional talks. And some of the lines he draws down strike me, on first reading, as potentially tricky. For example he wants the Taliban to make a formal statement of disassociation from al-Qaeda and to stop all roadside bombs as a precondition for negotiations. In return, Nato might offer to stop night-time raids and make some other concessions.'
Thursday, 28 April 2011
David Milliband On Afghanistan - No, Really
This is from a New Labour Blogger who I will not even credit from fear of contaminating my own blog. It shows that David Milliband, who is up to his bony elbows in the Iraq and Afghanistan debacles, extraordinary rendition and who Hillary Clinton stored in her handbag, has not an iota of shame or self-assessment. Just a typical New Labour spiv in other words.
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Were negotiations started on those terms, both sides might as well declare a cease-fire. I have seen the need to negotiate with the Taliban since the beginning, but I don't see anything of consequence happening any time soon. Petraeus thought he could get the Taliban to surrender by 2012. I'm sure the Taliban realizes its need to gain political concessions through negotiations, but I also wonder if they would fight to the last man rather than surrender.
ReplyDeleteIt's a close, and crucial, call whether the Taliban could fight on and on IMO, James. My old touchstone, the Algerian War of Independence, shows that the FLN were on the brink of exhaustion and bankruptcy more than once during the six years of their campaign. They continued, I believe, because they only had one road home, to quote the phrase. The Taliban face the same hazards and inevitabilities. They are vastly out-gunned and out-resourced as everyone knows but they have a goal. Nato couldn't tell you what their goal was last year this year or next year. The militaries are at odds with the politicos here in Britain and, I suspect, in most Nato countries. The 'awakenings' are causing what passes for foreign policy in NATO countries to be re-configured. This could lead to a severe reverse for the West in AfPak. The signs are there already as you have consistently and eloquently pointed out.
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