The Wiki-leaked diplomatic memos have revealed that European Union President Herman Van Rompuy told America's ambassador that the EU no longer believes in success in Afghanistan, and that European troops are still there “out of deference to the United States.”
U.S. Ambassador to Belgium Howard Gutman, in the memo released by WikiLeaks, quotes Mr. Van Rompuy as saying in December 2009 that the EU will wait until the end of 2010 to see progress.
“Europe is doing it and will go along out of deference to the United States but not out of deference to Afghanistan,” the memo said citing Mr. Van Rompuy. “No one believes in Afghanistan any more.”
America's European allies contribute about 30,000 troops to the U.S.-led NATO force in Afghanistan.
Last month, alliance leaders endorsed a plan to start turning over responsibility for security to Afghan forces next year. The summit in Lisbon, Portugal, said NATO's combat role would 'end in 2014.'
If Germany pulls out then others will follow.
ReplyDeleteThe West may not be able to last till 2014.
Elections, economy, and logistics will now dictate how long this lasts.
I still think there is a possibility that Afghanistan will be partitioned.
I think they would be daft enough to try a partition but this would launch a full-scale civil war IMO. Which the Taliban would win. Too high a risk for the west I think. A seriously major security setback would start a panic in NATO ranks, I believe, just now. I always recall the attack by Hezbollah on the US baracks in Lebanon in 1983. Was it 300 soldiers killed? Even Reagan knew he couldn't spin this and they were gone, lock stock and barrel within days. Germany and others would run for the exits leaving the US and their neocon UK bagmen with a need to find a narrative around which to spin a speeded up, Saigon-style retreat.
ReplyDeleteIt could be a real possibility.
ReplyDeleteThey have to save face.
The West loves to draw lines in the sand.
Korea's DMZ. N/S Viet Nam, E/W Germany.
New Nations have been formed through out history, by redrawing the maps.
Some permanent, some not so permanent.
Some are drawn for the purpose of buying time, and honor. :-)
Baluchistan is always on my mind.
A reach yes, but also very possible.
Gwadar is what they want and need.
Either by control, or access. It is a major energy resource choke point.