Care For Some Enduring Freedom?

So where is the big political fanfare emanating from Kabul, Washington and London, as happened previously when we were told Afghanistan was taking its 'first tentative steps towards democracy.'  Very simple. First, the election will be riddled with fraud and corruption. Secondly, the Taliban will show once again it can strike with comparative impunity. And, thirdly, those international bodies, such as the United Nations, tasked with helping Afghans realise what free and fair elections actually mean have bottled it and bolted. It's the same as this time last year for the presidential vote.

The significant difference on this occasion, however, is that everyone is keeping their political heads beneath the parapet in the certain knowledge that once again the West /NATO etc. will fail to deliver for the Afghan people and no-one wants to be blamed. Every day in the news from Afghanistan, in the comments from NATO/ISAF commanders and the evasive doublespeak of US political leaders on troop drawdown and withdrawal, you can feel (and smell) the tide is changing.

And all the time the Taliban are gaining at every turn. Indeed, the evidence on the ground already shows that, far from being on the back foot, they are advancing and holding territory in provinces such as Wardak and infiltrating the north of the country in places like Kunduz and Badakshan, turning what until now have been comparatively subdued regions into resurgent battlefronts. 

Today, it’s not so much a sense of mission creep as a creeping sense that the mission is toileted. Take tomorrow’s election for example. In the aftermath of last year’s presidential vote, as many as 1.2 million votes were said to be illegal. In its wake, the UN and others swore they would do better next time. Yet, according to Johann Kriegler, one of only two foreigners on Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission, over the next few days we can expect pretty much the same, if not more, widespread ballot rigging and intimidation than before.

And where do we find the UN precisely at this moment ?  Throughout the past week or so, the UN has evacuated what it deems as non-essential staff for fear they might be in harm’s way from Taliban violence during the elections. In all, that’s about one-third of its entire international workforce in Afghanistan. Or, to use UN speak, a “reduction in its footprint”. “We are going to be particularly careful as the Taliban have announced they will attack anyone involved in this election and we are very much involved,” says Staffan de Mistura, the head of the UN mission in Afghanistan. Really? Well, perhaps you’re not quite involved enough, I would say. Why is it every time we put the Afghan people through the rigours of the democratic process, instead of standing its ground, the UN sticks to its pathetic last in, first out approach that has characterised so many of its international missions? To be fair, though, the UN is not alone in bending to Taliban intimidation: many other international election monitoring groups have also given up on full “observation” missions, rendering tomorrow’s ballot next to useless. This is bad news at a time when, more than ever, ordinary Afghans need reassurance.

Around Kabul’s more “fashionable” neighbourhoods, you can see the 'narchitecture' - extravagant new houses built on the enormous profits of the illegal drug trade are testimony to the financial and political power of warlords who run private militias and “security companies”. It is these bitter rivals, not just the Taliban, that ordinary Afghans believe will plunge them back to the worst days of the 1990s. Thanks, Isaf. Thanks, Nato.Words you will hear on no Afghan lips.