Extensive fraud could undermine the goal of an acceptable transfer of power. But it will be important not to discredit the legitimacy of the Afghan election simply because it falls short of perfection. The international community should concentrate on a practical standard that recognizes the challenges that young democracies inevitably face in holding elections, and not let preconceptions write the story in advance.
In fact, this election is too close to call. There are entirely plausible reasons that any of the three main candidates - former Foreign Ministers Abdullah Abdullah and Zalmai Rassoul and former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani - could win. Ghani and Rassoul are, like President Hamid Karzai, ethnic Pashtuns (the largest ethnic group). Abdullah is considered primarily Tajik (the second-largest ethnic group and provider of many of the military leaders).
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