Grim Projections

The year 2014, when most Americans and British troops will pull out, is getting closer. 
Afghanistan will hold a new presidential election that summer.President Karzai will have to stand down, yet no-one has any idea yet who might take over from him. So what is likely to happen?
The gloomiest scenario runs as follows: President Karzai will smooth the way for his brother, who has been accused of gross corruption, to stand for the presidency. Many people here feel this would discredit the entire election process. In addition to previous discredit heaped upon previous elections. Foreign countries would be reluctant to give Afghanistan the aid they have promised. In the shorter term, the move away from joint patrols between ISAF and the ANA is a disaster for the 'shoulder to shoulder with our Afghan allies' narrative of Obama and the NATO leaders. The plan(s) over the years in Afghanistan have seemed to unravel at different stages and in different ways. I have always thought that NATO schemes were like London buses and there was always another one just around the corner. It was even 'education programmes' at one stage. Not any more. This is now like watching the Hindenburg going down in flames.