25% Of Districts To Fall To Taliban By 2015

Moreover, the insurgency has not been radically weakened by the recent military operations; it remains a vital threat to the Kabul government, particularly because there is no sign of a reduction in Pakistani support for the Taliban. In fact, the withdrawal will automatically translate into a Taliban advance, particularly in eastern and southern areas, such as Helmand, where the insurgents are contained only by the constant efforts of coalition forces. Meanwhile, the Afghan regime is experiencing a deep and multipronged crisis. Its popular legitimacy is weak, an exit of the elite who have been enriched by the war looms, an economic crisis stretches across the country, and a clear mechanism for President Karzai’s succession remains elusive as it is becoming impossible to organize elections in a large number of rural areas. The current regime also cannot be expected to improve governance, which enhances Afghans’ attraction to the insurgency’s shadow government at a local level, particularly with respect to the resolution of private disputes. LINK