NATO Retreat And The Lessons Of History

It seems a bit ironic to talk of the lessons of history when they have been so consistently ignored in the Afghan context. But the parallels between NATO's withdrawal and the Soviet retreat in in 1989 are unmissable. Ten years of fighting with the CIA backed mujahaddin, cash-strapped and lacking public support at home, the USSR pulled out. But they continued funding and arming the Afghan government until the USSR itself crumbled. They held out for three years. The resulting civil war lasted from 1992 until the Taliban won in 1996 and so on to the conflict today. Hundreds of thousands died in the Russian occupation/civil war. Afghan society fell apart and most of Kabul was destroyed. The allies who fought the Russians turned on each other in a fratricidal war and some fought against the Taliban. Twenty years later most of the protagonists are still there fighting or 'supporting' NATO/ISAF. Dozens of the former warlords are now governors, ministers, generals. The negotiations which are currently taking place below the radar must also encompass an attempt to avoid another mass civil war on the chaotic (which it will be, despite the spin) rush to the exits by the US and NATO.